This week’s Playpen is a thought experiment intended to be analyzed independent of any historical controversies or current events in order to try an avoid unhelpful ideological divisions that ultimately obscure matters. In order to illustrate the issue I will set out two fictional historical scenarios with one minor distinction. In one, the actor under scrutiny is a current executive office holder and in the other the person under scrutiny is seeking to become an executive office holder through a popular election.
Fact scenario 1:
Winston Churchill has been promoted to Prime Minister at the same point in history as occurred historically. Assume though that Hitler does not subsequently turn East towards the USSR, but instead seeks to aggressively neutralize Britain’s war-making capacities making the calculation that the USA will never join the fight in Europe if Britain falls. It is assumed that once all of Western Europe is either secured, neutralized or led by friendly governments, then the issue of a normalization of relations with the Americas can be undertaken. A blockade and a no fly zone of Great Britain are established.
Britain is not only under siege from without, as parliamentary elections approach, an opposition candidate comes forward promising that he can both bring peace with Germany AND maintain national autonomy.
Intelligence is gathered suggesting that the opponent’s campaign apparatus is in contact with extremely high ranking members of the German Reich. Assume for our purposes, that the nature of the contact is mutually nefarious and meant to assist the personal ambitions of the candidate and the military ambitions of the German government. In essence, the candidate is running to become the titular head of a puppet government run directly from Berlin. In exchange for agreeing to participate in the plan, the candidate has negotiated for himself a substantial amount of money to squirrel away in various banks around the world and the appearance of great power. This assessment is not a matter of debate, context, conjecture or interpretation.
However, any public release of the details of the repeated contacts would tip off the identity of the source of the information with obvious effects. Two people in Germany know the essential details of the contacts and the future plans, and one of them is named Adolph.
As such, no prosecution is possible. No public release of information is possible. No private release of information to the candidate as a means of persuading him to drop out is possible.
Churchill is faced with winning the election or the nation he is charged with the obligation to protect is doomed. No two ways about it. Out of an abundance of caution, Churchill orders MI6 to neutralize the threat with extreme prejudice.
Fact scenario 2:
Candidate Smith is running against an incumbent US President. The incumbent has been faced with a military crisis on the Korean Peninsula. The North, with substantial Chinese aid, has crossed the 38th parallel looking once again to unify the peninsula. Losses have been substantial on both sides. The American people have lost patience and want the matter to end and/or for the South Koreans to take the lead.
Because of this reality, the South Koreans have doubts about the current administration’s sincere commitment to its future security. It perceives the administration as seeking to achieve a quick resolution for domestic consumption in an election year. They fear that the US will not insist upon the security guarantees it feels are essential to resolving the conflict now and in the decades to come.
While the administration and the North Koreans have an agreement in principle, and are waiting for the South’s decision, a backchannel contact is made by an associate of the Smith Campaign assuring the South a better deal under the Smith administration suggesting that it is in its long-term interests to decline to sign on. The candidate is fully aware of the enticement and the need to deprive the administration of a political victory.
And, in reality, Smith wants to scrap the entire peace framework and once having taken power will seek regime change in North Korea. While the South would welcome that end, it is not committed to the costs associated with that goal and would, given the choice, prefer the current administration’s offer over seeking total victory.
The South declines the offer. The peace deal collapses. Smith wins the election, and having promised to end the war if elected, escalates the war arguing that escalation is required to get the North back to the negotiating table, all the while knowing it he is not interested in a negotiated settlement, but in regime change only.
I assume that everyone agrees that the Smith campaign, the candidate involved and every actor who convinced the South not to sign onto the deal, are terrible, horrible people. However, between the two, only Churchill has committed a clear provable criminal offense with a classified paper trail.
Even if Smith and his campaign were later subject to an investigation denials, numerous loyalist buffers and difficulty in proving intent would stymie any attempt to hold those most responsible accountable.
Meanwhile, a subsequent administration would presumably have access to information proving with a certainty that Churchill committed a murder of a political opponent.
Since Nixon there has been a great deal of debate and discussion about the issue of presidential immunity and of drawing lines between private and public acts. While an interesting debate, and one I personally think makes little sense to engage in, the issue I am interested and what influenced this post is whether the line drawing is the important matter.
The truth is that the cunning and the clever, no matter their line of work, can engage in exceptionally unethical and morally repugnant acts and never face repercussion. Meanwhile, people of good will may on occasion be placed in a position to choose that which would clearly break the letter of the law.
Given the fact that we cannot rely on rules, laws, statutes, or judicial decisions to protect ourselves from really bad actors or really bad circumstances, isn’t the real question:
What is the most essential quality we should look for in those people we are considering entrusting with great power?
Discuss?
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